Hours from "fiscal cliff," Washington still awaits deal

1 of 15. A man walks past the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington December 17, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Joshua Roberts

By Fred Barbash

WASHINGTON | Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:27am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress comes back on Monday without a deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" and only a few hours of actual legislative time scheduled in which to act if an agreement materializes.

Negotiations involving Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell appeared to offer the last hope for avoiding the across-the-board tax increases and draconian cuts in the federal budget that will be triggered at the start of the New Year because of a deficit-reduction law enacted in August, 2011.

A jolt from the financial markets could also prod the parties, as it has occasionally in the past.

"I believe investors will show their displeasure" at the lack of progress in Washington, said Mohannad Aama, managing director at Beam Capital Management, an investment advisory firm in New York.

Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate had hoped to clear the way for swift action on Sunday. But with the two sides still at loggerheads in talks, Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid postponed any possible votes and the Senate adjourned until Monday.

The main sticking point between Republicans and Democrats remained whether to extend existing tax rates for everyone, as Republicans want, or just for those earning below $250,000 to $400,000, as Democrats have proposed.

Also at issue were Republican demands for larger cuts in spending than those offered by President Barack Obama.

Hopes for a "grand bargain" of deficit-reduction measures vanished weeks ago as talks stalled.

While Congress has the capacity to move swiftly when motivated, the leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate have left themselves little time for what could be a complicated day of procedural maneuvering in the event of an agreement.

House Speaker John Boehner has insisted that the Senate act first, but that chamber does not begin legislative business until about noon Monday.

OTHER BUSINESS ALSO ON AGENDA

And the cliff is not the only business on the House agenda. Farm-state lawmakers are seeking a one-year extension of the expiring U.S. farm law to head off a possible doubling of retail milk prices to $7 or more a gallon in early 2013.

Relief for victims of Superstorm Sandy is waiting in line in the House as well, though it could still consider a Senate bill on assistance for the storm until January 2, the last day of the Congress that was elected in November 2010.

Expiring along with low tax rates at midnight Monday are a raft of other tax measures effecting tens of millions of Americans.

A payroll tax holiday Americans have enjoyed for two years looks like the most certain casualty as neither Republicans or Democrats have shown much interest in continuing it, in part because the tax funds the Social Security retirement program.

The current 4.2 percent payroll tax rate paid by about 160 million workers will revert to the previous 6.2 percent rate after December 31, and will be the most immediate hit to taxpayers.

A "patch" for the Alternative Minimum Tax that would prevent millions of middle-class Americans from being taxed as if they were rich, could go over the cliff as well. Both Republicans and Democrats support doing another patch, but have not approved one.

At best, the Internal Revenue Service has warned that as many as 100 million taxpayers could face refund delays without an AMT fix. At worst, they could face higher taxes unless Congress comes back with a retroactive fix.

After Tuesday, Congress could move for retroactive relief on any or all of the tax and spending issues. But that would require compromises that Republicans and Democrats have been unwilling to make so far.

Obama said on Sunday he plans on pushing legislation as soon as January 4 to reverse the tax hikes for all but the wealthy.

(Editing by Christopher Wilson)

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Obama says failure to reach fiscal deal would hurt markets

President Barack Obama delivers remarks at the White House in Washington November 28, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON | Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:49am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Financial markets would be affected adversely if U.S. lawmakers fail to agree on a "fiscal cliff" deal before Tuesday, President Barack Obama said in an interview broadcast on Sunday, while urging Congress to act quickly to extend tax cuts for middle-class Americans.

Lawmakers are seeking a last-minute deal that would set aside $600 billion in tax increases and across-the-board government spending cuts that are set to start within days. If Congress does not make that happen, the first bill brought up in the new year would be to reduce taxes for middle-income families, Obama told NBC's "Meet the Press."

"Now I think that over the next 48 hours, my hope is that people recognize that, regardless of partisan differences, our top priority has to be to make sure that taxes on middle-class families do not go up. That would hurt our economy badly," Obama said in the interview taped on Saturday.

"We can get that done. Democrats and Republicans both say they don't want taxes to go up on middle-class families. That's something we all agree on. If we can get that done, that takes a big bite out of the 'fiscal cliff.' It avoids the worst outcomes," Obama added.

Low income tax rates first put in place under Republican former President George W. Bush are due to expire at the end of the day on Monday - the last day of 2012.

Obama said that failing to reach a deal would have a negative impact on financial markets.

"If people start seeing that on January 1st this problem still hasn't been solved, that we haven't seen the kind of deficit reduction that we could have had had the Republicans been willing to take the deal that I gave them ... then obviously that's going to have an adverse reaction in the markets," he said.

RARE SENATE SESSION ON SUNDAY

Obama met with congressional leaders at the White House on Friday and declared himself cautiously optimistic about the chances of an agreement, but he noted in the interview that nothing had materialized since then.

"I was modestly optimistic yesterday, but we don't yet see an agreement. And now the pressure's on Congress to produce," he said.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a rare Sunday session beginning at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT), but it was not clear whether the chamber would have fiscal-cliff legislation to act upon.

Obama sketched out what he believed to be the most likely scenarios the end the back-and-forth between both sides. Either the congressional leaders would come up with a deal, or Democrats in the Senate would bring a bill to the floor seeking an up-or-down vote to extend tax cuts for middle income earners.

"And if all else fails, if Republicans do in fact decide to block it, so that taxes on middle class families do in fact go up on January 1st, then we'll come back with a new Congress on January 4th and the first bill that will be introduced on the floor will be to cut taxes on middle class families," he said.

Obama chided Republicans for resisting his call for tax rates to go up for the top two percent of U.S. earners despite what he viewed as significant compromises on his part to cut spending and reform expensive social programs for the poor and elderly.

"They say that their biggest priority is making sure that we deal with the deficit in a serious way, but the way they're behaving is that their only priority is making sure that tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans are protected. That seems to be their only overriding, unifying theme," Obama said.

"The offers that I've made to them have been so fair that a lot of Democrats get mad at me. I mean I offered to make some significant changes to our entitlement programs in order to reduce the deficit," he said.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason; Editing by David Brunnstrom)

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Household debt burden hits 29-year low

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:59pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A measure of the burden of household debt tumbled in the third quarter to its lowest level in 29 years, which should help free up money for consumer spending and support the economy.

The household debt service ratio -- an estimate of the share of debt payments to disposable personal income -- fell to 10.61 percent from 10.72 percent in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday.

It was the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 1983.

"Consumers have more money in their pockets to spend, which should be positive for the economic recovery going forward," said Gennadiy Goldberg, an economist at TD Securities in New York.

Households built up a massive debt load as the housing bubble expanded and efforts to pay down those debts have been a restraint on spending and the economy's recovery.

The debt service ratio, which takes into account outstanding mortgage and consumer debt, peaked in the third quarter of 2007, shortly before the economy tipped into recession.

The Fed has sought to help consumers dig out by keeping interest rates near record lows. It has held overnight rates near zero since December 2008 and has bought around $2.4 trillion in bonds to further lower borrowing costs.

Even though households are now in better shape, analysts caution that consumer spending could stall if Congress fails to prevent higher taxes from taking hold next year.

An even broader measure of financial obligations that includes automobile lease payments and the cost of renting a home also fell in the third quarter, dropping to 15.74 percent of disposable income -- the lowest level since the first quarter of 1984.

That drop reflected an easier burden for homeowners as mortgage debt payments dropped to 8.90 percent of disposable income in the third quarter, the lowest in 11 years.

Both the overall homeowners measure and separate mortgage gauge peaked in the third quarter of 2007.

"You have a lot of people refinancing their mortgages at lower rates," Goldberg said.

In contrast, the relative cost of rent rose to its highest level since the first quarter of 2010.

The weak housing market has led Americans away from home ownership and toward renting, pushing up rents. At the same time, a modest economic recovery has encouraged some people who had moved in with family and friends to seek their own lodgings, further strengthening the rental market.

While a lightening of household debt burden puts the recovery on firmer ground, it also highlights a hesitance to take on new debt, which could be an obstacle to spending.

"We all (would) like to see better growth in credit, banks being more willing to make more loans to consumers, demand for loans rising," said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

"That would push the ratio higher, but that's not necessarily a such a bad thing, especially if rates are so low and you are able to service that debt."

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Dan Grebler)

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Analysis: After "fiscal cliff" dive, more battles, new cliffs

Macy Curtis, 11, and her grandparents Sam and Andrea Perrone, all of Snellville, Georgia, visit the U.S. Capitol in Washington, December 29, 2012. President Barack Obama and U.S. congressional leaders agreed on Friday to make a final effort to prevent the United States from going over the ''fiscal cliff,'' setting off intense bargaining over Americans' tax rates as a New Year's Eve deadline looms.

Credit: Reuters/Mary Calvert

By David Lawder and Fred Barbash

WASHINGTON | Sat Dec 29, 2012 4:26pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Whether or not the "fiscal cliff" impasse is broken before the New Year's Eve deadline, there will be no post-cliff peace in Washington.

With the political climate toxic in Congress as the cliff's steep tax hikes and spending cuts approach, other partisan fights loom, all over the issue that has paralyzed the capital for the past two years: federal spending.

The first will come in late February when the Treasury Department runs out of borrowing authority and has to come to Congress to get the debt ceiling raised.

The next is likely in late March, when a temporary bill to fund the government runs out, confronting Congress with a deadline to act or face a government shutdown. The third will possibly be whenever the temporary bill replacing the temporary bill expires.

While Congress is supposed to pass annual spending bills before the start of each fiscal year, it has failed to complete that process since 1996, resorting to stopgap funding ever since.

Influential anti-tax activist Grover Norquist predicted in an interview with Reuters that conservatives would wage repeated battles with President Barack Obama to demand budget savings every time the government needs a temporary funding bill or more borrowing capacity.

The so-called "continuing resolutions" to which a divided Congress has increasingly resorted to keep the government operating, provide a "very powerful tool" to pry out spending cuts, said Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.

Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee said he will not be satisfied until there are substantial cuts to federal retirement and healthcare benefits known as entitlements, producing savings in the $4.5 trillion to $5 trillion range.

"Unfortunately for America," said Corker, "the next line in the sand will be the debt ceiling."

Most observers see the $16.4 trillion debt limit as the true fiscal cliff in the new year because if not increased, it would eventually lead to a default on U.S. Treasury debt, an event that could prove cataclysmic for financial markets.

The Treasury Department said on Wednesday it would start taking extraordinary measures by December 31 to extend its borrowing capacity for about two more months.

'POISONOUS CLIMATE'

It was a deadlock over raising the debt ceiling in August 2011 that prompted a deficit reduction deal that led to a key fiscal cliff component, the $109 billion in automatic spending cuts on military and domestic programs.

If the fiscal cliff's spending cuts or tax increases are left even partly unresolved on December 31, the political combat over them will carry over into the new Congress, possibly simultaneously with the debt ceiling debate.

"We would be pessimistic of a quick fix" if the deadline is missed, Sean West, head U.S. analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said in a note to clients. "The political climate will be poisoned. The new Congress will need time to settle in."

"We are concluding one of the most unsuccessful Congresses in history," Democratic Representative John Dingell of Michigan declared in a statement on Saturday, "noteworthy not only for its failure to accomplish anything of importance, but also for the poisonous climate of the institution."

Dingell, 86, is the longest serving member of the House, elected first in 1955.

Historically, bitter struggles in Congress like that over the fiscal cliff lead to further resentment and strife in a cycle of cumulative grudges that now spans nearly 30 years.

Many analysts and lobbyists in Washington believe the strife could get even worse because the new Congress convening on January 3 will include fewer members from moderate or swing districts and more from districts tilted heavily to the left or the right.

Republicans in particular are likely to face their most serious re-election challenges in 2014 not from Democrats but from conservative Republicans challenging them in primary elections.

"Ironically," said a post-election analysis published by the law firm Patton Boggs, "the voters have elected a 113th Congress that may be even more partisan than the 112th."

(Reporting by David Lawder and Fred Barbash; Editing by Eric Beech)

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Senate leaders work to avoid New Year's "fiscal cliff"

1 of 12. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) (2nd L) walks with unidentified aides and security to his office at the U.S. Capitol after returning from a meeting with President Barack Obama at the White House in Washington December 28, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Mary Calvert

By Richard Cowan and Rachelle Younglai

WASHINGTON | Sat Dec 29, 2012 7:22pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Congressional negotiators burrowed into their offices on Saturday to see if they could stop the U.S. economy from falling off of a "fiscal cliff" in just three days when the biggest tax increases ever to hit Americans in one shot are scheduled to begin.

Aides to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell worked through the day on a possible compromise that would set aside $600 billion in tax increases and across-the-board government spending cuts that are set to kick in next week.

A variety of lower taxes are scheduled to expire at the end of Monday, the last day of the year. If allowed to rise, the approximately $500 billion value of the revenue increases would represent a historic hike when taken together.

The combined punch of the tax increases and spending cuts could push the U.S. economy back into recession.

"We're now at the point where, in just a couple days, the law says that every American's tax rates are going up. Every American's paycheck will get a lot smaller. And that would be the wrong thing to do for our economy," President Barack Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address, which was broadcast on Saturday.

McConnell left the U.S. Capitol after spending seven hours in his office. "We've been trading paper all day and talks continue into the evening," he told reporters on his way out.

A source with knowledge of the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "We are still very far apart with almost no time left on the clock."

TEMPORARY PATCHES

One congressional aide close to the talks said that most of what was being discussed late on Saturday would provide temporary patches to the "fiscal cliff" dilemma. The negotiations, the aide said, likely could extend into Sunday.

"They continue to go round and round," the aide said of the negotiations, with ideas constantly in flux.

The aide, who asked not to be identified, said negotiators were discussing the possibility of putting off for a few months the $109 billion in automatic spending cuts due to start on Wednesday. Those cuts would be divided equally between military and non-military programs. It is feared that they could cause severe disruptions inside federal agencies if allowed to occur.

Earlier this week, talk of a temporary delay in the spending cuts was met with derision by some congressional aides.

The extension of the low income tax rates first put in place under Republican former President George W. Bush would also be on a temporary basis, probably one year, the aide said.

No deal had been reached on the most difficult question: Democrats' demand that upper-income earners - families making more than $250,000 a year - see their tax rates go up.

Republicans had been opposed to any rate increase, but lately have signaled a willingness to go along with a higher threshold - and a $400,000 figure has been floating around for days.

Under proposals being discussed, top earners could see their income tax rate rise to 39.6 percent, from the current 35 percent, in order to help tame budget deficits.

The aide added that Republicans still had not agreed to Obama's call for extending long-term unemployment benefits, but that they were demanding some spending cuts to be included in a stop-gap deal.

Disagreements over what to do about low estate taxes that are expiring also had not been worked out, the aide said.

Unless Congress acts, the tax is set to jump on Tuesday - the first day of 2013 - to 55 percent with the first $1 million exempted for individuals. Currently, there is a 35 percent tax and a $5 million exemption.

A Senate Republican leadership aide said that it might not be known until sometime on Sunday whether these talks bear fruit. That is when the leaders are expected to brief their rank-and-file members.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a rare Sunday session beginning at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT), but it was not clear whether the chamber would have "fiscal cliff" legislation to act upon.

One Democratic aide was pessimistic that McConnell would come up with a counteroffer that Reid would find acceptable. Such a counteroffer would have to be calibrated in a way that also could attract votes from conservative House of Representatives Republicans, many of whom have balked at tax rate increases on anyone.

'HARD TO SEE'

A senior House Republican aide on Saturday voiced pessimism about prospects for a deal.

"It's hard to see Reid agreeing to anything that can get the votes of the majority of the (Republican) majority in the House, thereby allowing a bipartisan accomplishment," the aide said. A "majority of the majority" refers to the 241 Republicans who are in the 435-member House.

The Republican aide placed the blame squarely on Democrats, as many Republican members have done publicly, saying that going off the "fiscal cliff" is a "policy upside" for them. "Higher taxes, devastating defense cuts. The polls tell them they can win the PR (publican relations) war in January. From their perspective, why stop the cliff dive?"

Democrats, in turn, have publicly accused House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, of preferring to put off any tough "fiscal cliff" votes until after a January 3 House election in which he is expected to win another two-year term as speaker.

If McConnell and Reid can manage to reach a deal on inheritance taxes and raising income tax rates on the wealthiest Americans, they likely would throw into the compromise some other "fiscal cliff" solutions.

Those could include extending an array of other expiring tax breaks such as one that encourages companies to conduct research and development. Also, Congress wants to prevent a steep pay-cut in January for doctors who treat elderly patients under the Medicare health insurance program.

Lawmakers also want to prevent middle-class taxpayers from inadvertently creeping into a higher tax bracket, known as the alternative minimum tax, intended for the wealthiest.

If the Reid-McConnell effort fails, Obama has asked the Senate to hold a vote on Monday on a "basic package" that would stop taxes from going up on the middle class and would extend long-term unemployment benefits that are about to expire. If it passes the Senate, its fate would be in the hands of the Republican-controlled House.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro and Jeff Mason; Editing by Will Dunham)

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Housing, factory data point to momentum in economy

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:34pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Contracts for U.S. home resales hit a 2-1/2-year high in November and factory activity in the Midwest expanded this month, suggesting some strength in the economy despite the threat of tighter fiscal policy.

The National Association of Realtors said on Friday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, increased 1.7 percent to 106.4 - the highest level since April 2010 when the home-buyer tax credit expired.

November marked the third straight month of gains for signed contracts, which become sales after a month or two, and followed a 5 percent increase in October.

A separate report showed the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 51.6 in December from 50.4 in November. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the regional economy. It was the second straight month of growth and was driven by a rebound in new orders.

The data suggested some of the growth momentum from the third quarter carried into the final three months of 2012, even as businesses and households braced for sharp cuts in government spending and higher taxes in the new year.

Data so far in the fourth quarter ranging from consumer spending, housing, employment and the various manufacturing indicators have been fairly upbeat.

"We don't see much evidence that the economy was slowing as we headed into the end of the year, but everything could change on January 1," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

There are fears that currently stalled budget talks in Washington will fail to steer clear of a $600 billion "fiscal cliff" of less government spending and higher taxes, which could tip the economy back into recession.

"There is nothing here to suggest that the economy has enough momentum to withstand the shock if we go over the fiscal-cliff with no quick return," said Ryding. "The good news right now is it looks like we could have the mid-twos kind of GDP (growth) for the fourth quarter."

STRENGTHENING HOUSING RECOVERY

The economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter. The latest Reuters survey of economists put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at a 1.2 percent rate, mostly because of superstorm Sandy, which struck the East Coast in late October and fiscal cliff-related cutbacks in business spending.

U.S. financial markets ignored the data as attention remained focused on the developments in Washington surrounding the fiscal cliff.

Stocks on Wall Street fell, putting the Standard & Poor's 500 index on track for a fifth straight day of declines. U.S. Treasury debt prices rose, while the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies.

Though the employment gauge in the Chicago ISM survey fell to a three-year low in December, economists expected a rebound given the strength in new orders.

"The drop in employment reflects the weakness in new orders in November and to a lesser degree the fiscal cliff. With the bounce back in new orders, employment will also bounce back," said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

The pending home sales report pointed to a strengthening in the housing market recovery. Contracts were up 9.8 percent in the 12 months through November.

The housing market has turned the corner after a dramatic collapse, which dragged the economy through its worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Home sales and prices are rising, encouraging builders to undertake new construction projects. Home resale contracts were up in three of the country's four regions. They were unchanged in the South.

"The housing revival seems to be happening in a way that puts some positive feedback loop, a virtuous cycle into the economy," said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds in New York.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

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Senate leaders to make last-ditch "fiscal cliff" effort

1 of 12. U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) speaks to reporters on his way to lunch at the U.S. Capitol in Washington December 28, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Mary F. Calvert

By Roberta Rampton and Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:35pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and U.S. congressional leaders agreed on Friday to make a final effort to prevent the United States from going over the "fiscal cliff," setting off intense bargaining over Americans' tax rates as a New Year's Eve deadline looms.

With only days left to avoid steep tax hikes and spending cuts that could cause a recession, two Senate veterans will try to forge a deal that has eluded the White House and Congress for months.

Obama said he was "modestly optimistic" an agreement could be found. But neither side appeared to give much ground at a White House meeting of congressional leaders on Friday.

What they did agree on was to task Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate majority leader, and Mitch McConnell, who heads the chamber's Republican minority, with reaching a budget agreement by Sunday at the latest.

"The hour for immediate action is here. It is now. We're now at the point where in just four days, every American's tax rates are scheduled to go up by law. Every American's paycheck will get considerably smaller. And that would be the wrong thing to do," Obama told reporters.

A total of $600 billion in tax hikes and automatic cuts to government spending will start kicking in on Tuesday - New Year's Day - if politicians cannot reach a deal. Economists fear the measures will push the U.S. economy into a recession.

Pessimism about the fiscal cliff helped push U.S. stocks down on Friday for a fifth straight day. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 158.20 points, or 1.21 percent. Retailers are blaming worries about the "fiscal cliff" for lackluster Christmas season shopping.

Under the plan hashed out on Friday, any agreement between McConnell and Reid would be backed by the Senate and then approved in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives before the end of the year.

But the House could well be the graveyard of any accord.

A core of fiscal conservatives there strongly opposes Obama's efforts to raise taxes for the wealthiest as part of a plan to close America's budget deficit. House Republicans also want to see Obama commit to major spending cuts.

Talks between Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner collapsed last week when several dozen Republicans defied their leader and rejected a plan to raise rates for those earning $1 million and above.

A Democratic aide said Boehner stuck mainly to "talking points" in Friday's White House meeting, with the message that the House had acted on the budget and it was now time for the Senate to move.

TALKS ON 'BIG NUMBERS'

The two Senate leaders and their aides will plunge into talks on Saturday that will focus mainly on the threshold for raising income taxes on households with upper-level earnings, a Democratic aide said. Analysts say both sides could agree on raising taxes for households earning more than $400,000 or $500,000 a year.

The pair will also discuss whether the estate tax should be kept at current low levels or allowed to rise, the aide said.

Democrat Reid warned of tough talks.

"It's not easy, we're dealing with big numbers, and some of that stuff we do is somewhat complicated," he said.

McConnell described Friday's White House summit, also attended by Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, as "a good meeting."

"So we'll be working hard to try to see if we can get there in the next 24 hours. So I'm hopeful and optimistic," he said.

If things cannot be worked out between the Senate leaders, Obama said he wanted both chambers in Congress to vote on a backup plan that would increase taxes only for households with more than $250,000 of annual income.

The plan would also extend unemployment insurance for about 2 million Americans and set up a framework for a larger deficit reduction deal next year.

There are signs in the options market that investor fear is taking hold. The CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX, the market's favored anxiety indicator, has remained at relatively low levels throughout this process, but it moved on Friday above 22, the highest level since June.

But some in the market were resigned to Washington going beyond the New Year's Day deadline, as long as a serious agreement on deficit reduction comes out of the talks in early January.

"Regardless of whether the government resolves the issues now, any deal can easily be retroactive. We're not as concerned with January 1 as the market seems to be," said Richard Weiss, a senior money manager at American Century Investments.

Another component of the "fiscal cliff" - $109 billion in automatic spending cuts to military and domestic programs - is set to kick in on Wednesday.

S&P rating agency said on Friday the fiscal cliff impasse did not affect the U.S. sovereign rating.

That lifted the immediate threat of a downgrade from the agency, which cut the United States' triple-A rating in August, 2011 in an unprecedented move after a similar partisan budget fight.

(Additional reporting by David Lawder, Thomas Ferraro, Rachelle Younglai and Mark Felsenthal; Writing by Alistair Bell; Editing by Peter Cooney)

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Wall Street Week Ahead: Cliff may be a fear, but debt ceiling much scarier

By Ryan Vlastelica, Edward Krudy and Doris Frankel

Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:34pm EST

n">(Reuters) - Investors fearing a stock market plunge - if the United States tumbles off the "fiscal cliff" next week - may want to relax.

But they should be scared if a few weeks later, Washington fails to reach a deal to increase the nation's debt ceiling because that raises the threat of a default, another credit downgrade and a panic in the financial markets.

Market strategists say that while falling off the cliff for any lengthy period - which would lead to automatic tax hikes and stiff cuts in government spending - would badly hurt both consumer and business confidence, it would take some time for the U.S. economy to slide into recession. In the meantime, there would be plenty of chances for lawmakers to make amends by reversing some of the effects.

That has been reflected in a U.S. stock market that has still not shown signs of melting down. Instead, it has drifted lower and become more volatile.

In some ways, that has let Washington off the hook. In the past, a plunge in stock prices forced the hand of Congress, such as in the middle of the financial crisis in 2008.

"If this thing continues for a bit longer and the result is you get a U.S. debt downgrade ... the risk is not that you lose two-and-a-half percent, the risk is that you lose ten and a half," said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at UBS Equity Research, in New York.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said this week that the United States will technically reach its debt limit at the end of the year.

INVESTORS WARY OF JANUARY

The White House has said it will not negotiate the debt ceiling as in 2011, when the fight over what was once a procedural matter preceded the first-ever downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. But it may be forced into such a battle again. A repeat of that war is most worrisome for markets.

Markets posted several days of sharp losses in the period surrounding the debt ceiling fight in 2011. Even after a bill to increase the ceiling passed, stocks plunged in what was seen as a vote of "no confidence" in Washington's ability to function, considering how close lawmakers came to a default.

Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's lowered the U.S. sovereign rating to double-A-plus, citing Washington's legislative problems as one reason for the downgrade from triple-A status. The benchmark S&P 500 dropped 16 percent in a four-week period ending August 21, 2011.

"I think there will be a tremendous fight between Democrats and Republicans about the debt ceiling," said Jon Najarian, a co-founder of online brokerage TradeMonster.com, in Chicago.

"I think that is the biggest risk to the downside in January for the market and the U.S. economy."

There are some signs in the options market that investors are starting to eye the January period with more wariness. The CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX, the market's preferred indicator of anxiety, has remained at relatively low levels throughout this process, though on Thursday it edged above 20 for the first time since July.

More notable is the action in VIX futures markets, which shows a sharper increase in expected volatility in January than in later-dated contracts. January VIX futures are up nearly 23 percent in the last seven trading days, compared with a 13 percent increase in March futures and an 8 percent increase in May futures. That's a sign of increasing near-term worry among market participants.

The CBOE Volatility Index closed on Friday at 22.72, gaining nearly 17 percent to end at its highest level since June as details emerged of a meeting on Friday afternoon of President Barack Obama with Senate and House leaders from both parties where the president offered proposals similar to those already rejected by Republicans. Stocks slid in late trading and equity futures continued that slide after cash markets closed.

"I was stunned Obama didn't have another plan, and that's absolutely why we sold off," said Mike Shea, a managing partner and trader at Direct Access Partners LLC, in New York.

Obama offered hope for a last-minute agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff after a meeting with congressional leaders, although he scolded Congress for leaving the problem unresolved until the 11th hour.

"The hour for immediate action is here," he told reporters at a White House briefing. "I'm modestly optimistic that an agreement can be achieved."

The U.S. House of Representatives is set to convene on Sunday and continue working through the New Year's Day holiday. Obama has proposed maintaining current tax rates for all but the highest earners.

Consumers don't appear at all traumatized by the fiscal cliff talks, as yet. Helping to bolster consumer confidence has been a continued recovery in the housing market and growth in the labor market, albeit slow.

The latest take on employment will be out next Friday, when the U.S. Labor Department's non-farm payrolls report is expected to show jobs growth of 145,000 for December, in line with recent growth.

Consumers will see their paychecks affected if lawmakers cannot broker a deal and tax rates rise, but the effect on spending is likely to be gradual.

PLAYING DEFENSE

Options strategists have noted an increase in positions to guard against weakness in defense stocks such as General Dynamics because those stocks would be affected by spending cuts set for that sector. Notably, though, the PHLX Defense Index is less than 1 percent away from an all-time high reached on December 20.

This underscores the view taken by most investors and strategists: One way or another, Washington will come to an agreement to offset some effects of the cliff. The result will not be entirely satisfying, but it will be enough to satisfy investors.

"Expectations are pretty low at this point, and yet the equity market hasn't reacted," said Carmine Grigoli, chief U.S. investment strategist at Mizuho Securities USA, in New York. "You're not going to see the markets react to anything with more than a 5 (percent) to 7 percent correction."

Save for a brief 3.6 percent drop in equity futures late on Thursday evening last week after House Speaker John Boehner had to cancel a scheduled vote on a tax-hike bill due to lack of Republican support, markets have not shown the same kind of volatility as in 2008 or 2011.

A gradual decline remains possible, Golub said, if business and consumer confidence continues to take a hit on the back of fiscal cliff worries. The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence fell sharply in December, a drop blamed in part on the fiscal issues.

"If Congress came out and said that everything is off the table, yeah, that would be a short-term shock to the market, but that's not likely," said Richard Weiss, a Mountain View, California-based senior money manager at American Century Investments.

"Things will be resolved, just maybe not on a good time table. All else being equal, we see any further decline as a buying opportunity."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: david.gaffen(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Edward Krudy and Ryan Vlastelica in New York and Doris Frankel in Chicago; Writing by David Gaffen; Editing by Martin Howell, Steve Orlofsky and Jan Paschal)

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Obama not making new "fiscal cliff" offer to Congress: source

U.S. President Barack Obama delivers remarks at the White House in Washington November 28, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

By Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:06pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama was not planning to make a new offer to avert the tax increases and spending cuts that loom on January 1 at a White House meeting with congressional leaders on Friday, a source familiar with the meeting said.

At the meeting, Obama was set to ask lawmakers to hold a vote on a "fiscal cliff" plan that would allow taxes to rise on those who earn $250,000 and up, and that would extend unemployment insurance benefits, according to the source.

Obama believes his plan would pass with a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the source said.

The president was meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker John Boehner and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi - the first time the group has met together since November.

If congressional leaders object to his plan, Obama will ask them for a viable counterproposal, the source added. If lawmakers have no alternative approach, he will seek an up-or-down vote in Congress on his plan, the source said.

(Reporting by Mark Felsenthal and Roberta Rampton; editing by Todd Eastham)

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Consumer sentiment weakens as fiscal crisis looms

1 of 3. Job seekers stand in line to meet with prospective employers at a career fair in New York City in this file photo taken October 24, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Mike Segar/Files

By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:14pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in December, hitting a four-month low as a looming fiscal crisis sapped what had been a growing sense of optimism about the economy.

The report heightened concerns that a failure by Washington to avert planned tax hikes and spending cuts could lead households to close their wallets, threatening an economic recovery that has been steady albeit lackluster.

Other data on Thursday highlighted the positive momentum building in the economy, with the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits falling to a nearly 4-1/2 year low and new home sales hitting their highest level since April 2010.

But gauges of business sentiment have weakened recently on worries Washington will go forward with plans to slash the federal deficit by about $600 billion in 2013.

Now consumers also appear apprehensive, a sign worries about the so-called "fiscal cliff" could bite into household spending.

The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 65.1 from 71.5 in November.

A sub-index measuring how consumers feel about their present situation rose to its highest level in more than four years, but a gauge of sentiment about the future plunged to its lowest point in more than a year.

"Consumers are increasingly preoccupied with the potential damage the fiscal cliff will cause to the economy and to their wallets if a deal is not reached soon," economists at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in a research note.

Separately, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 350,000, the Labor Department said.

"This recent improvement in the claims data is potentially a favorable signal for the labor market," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

After spiking in the wake of a mammoth storm that ravaged the East Coast in late October, new claims have dropped to their lowest levels since the early days of the 2007-09 recession. The four-week moving average fell 11,250 last week to 356,750, the lowest since March 2008.

The claims data has no direct relation to the government's monthly employment report, but it suggests the surge in layoffs since the recession has at least run its course.

Still, many economists think hiring may remain sluggish even as the pace of layoffs ease.

Companies in recent months have been adding to their payrolls at a lackluster pace, and analysts expect the employment report due on January 4 will show 143,000 jobs were created in December, down from 146,000 in November.

"A significant improvement in labor market conditions ahead of any resolution to the fiscal cliff is unlikely," said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays in New York.

U.S. stocks opened flat but turned lower as the Senate Democratic leader derided Republicans for the lack of progress in budget talks and warned that a fall off the "cliff" appeared inevitable. Investors sought safety by buying U.S. Treasury debt and the dollar, which rose against the euro.

Following a truncated holiday break in Hawaii, U.S. President Barack Obama returned to Washington to restart talks to avoid the brunt of the fiscal cliff's impact, which would likely put the U.S. economy back into recession if not lessened.

HOLIDAY CAVEAT

The signs of progress in the claims data also included a caveat, at least for the latest week.

Obama declared Monday a holiday for federal workers and many state offices followed suit and were unable to provide complete data for last week's jobless claims. Data for 19 states was estimated, although 14 of those states submitted their own estimates, which tend to be fairly accurate.

The holiday season can make it more difficult to adjust the claims data for normal seasonal fluctuations, another reason to be cautious about the report for last week.

Separately, the Commerce Department said new U.S. single-family home sales rose in November to a 377,000-unit annual rate, while the median sales price jumped 14.9 percent from the same month in 2011, the latest signs the U.S. housing recovery is gaining some steam.

In a fourth report, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank said its index of factory activity in the U.S. Midwest increased in November to 93.7 from a revised 92.2 in October.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Richard Leong and Ryan Vlastelica in New York; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

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Future of state estate taxes hangs on U.S. "fiscal cliff"

By Nanette Byrnes

Wed Dec 26, 2012 2:51pm EST

n">(Reuters) - Falling off the "fiscal cliff" is a bad thing, right?

Not necessarily for some state governments that could begin collecting more in estate taxes on wealth left to heirs if the United States goes over the "cliff," allowing sharp tax increases and federal spending cuts to take effect in January.

In an example of federal and state tax law interaction that gets little notice on Capitol Hill, 30 states next year could collect $3 billion more in estate taxes if Congress and President Barack Obama do not act soon, estimated the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank.

The reason? The federal estate tax would return with a vengeance and so would a federal credit system that shares a portion of it with the 30 states. They had been getting their cut of this tax revenue stream until the early 2000s. That was when the credit system for payment of state estate tax went away due to tax cuts enacted under former President George W. Bush.

With the return of the credit system next year as part of the "cliff," states such as Florida, Colorado and Texas - which have not collected estate tax since 2004 - could resume doing so. California Governor Jerry Brown has already begun to add the anticipated estate tax revenue into his plans, including $45 million of it in his 2012-2013 revised budget.

Brown may or may not be jumping the gun.

CLOUDY CLIFF AHEAD

The outlook on the "fiscal cliff" coming up at year-end is uncertain. Democratic President Barack Obama has said he hopes for a last-minute deal to avert it. That would need to get done soon, with Congress just now coming back from its holiday break.

Chances of an agreement became more remote last week after Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives fumbled their own legislative attempt to prevent the fiscal jolt that economists say could trigger a recession.

House Speaker John Boehner abruptly adjourned the chamber for the holidays after failing to gather the votes from within his own party to pass legislation he and other Republicans had drafted, after walking out of negotiations with Obama.

Weeks of inconclusive political drama over the "cliff" have focused largely on individual income tax rates and spending on federal programs such Medicare and Social Security, but many tax issues are also involved, including the estate tax.

At the moment, under laws signed a decade ago by Bush, the estate tax is applied to inherited assets at a rate of 35 percent after a $5 million exemption. That means a deceased person can pass on an inheritance of up to $5 million before any tax applies. Inherited wealth passed to a spouse or a federally recognized charity is generally not taxed.

Obama wants to raise the rate to 45 percent after a $3.5 million exemption. Republicans have called for complete repeal of the estate tax, which they call the "death tax," though Boehner earlier this month called for freezing the estate tax at its present level. It was difficult to determine what the Republicans want after last week's events in the House.

STATES STAND TO GAIN

If Congress and Obama do not act by December 31, numerous Bush-era tax laws will expire, including the one on estate taxes. That would mean the estate tax rate will shoot up next year to the pre-Bush levels of 55 percent after a $1 million exemption.

It would also mean that for the first time in years, a portion of that estate tax would go to the states, through the return of the credit system.

Under that old law, estates paying the tax could get a credit against their federal tax bill for state estate tax payments of up to 16 percent of the estate's value.

If the fiscal cliff were allowed to take hold unaltered by Washington, 30 states would again automatically begin getting their share of federal estate taxes. The state laws are generally written so the state estate tax amounts are calculated under a formula based on the amount of the federal credit.

This would help states that have struggled with lower tax revenues since the 2007-2009 financial crisis and resulting recession, according to research by the Pew Center on the States, though painful federal spending cut backs would also hurt the states.

(Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Cynthia Osterman)

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Economic growth gauge eased modestly last week: ECRI

Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009.

Credit: Reuters/Rick Wilking

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"Fiscal cliff" drag on economy less than feared so far

Women carry shopping bags through Times Square in New York, July 27, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Andrew Burton

By Jason Lange

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:47pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy showed surprising signs of resilience in November despite the approach of the so-called fiscal cliff as consumer spending rose by the most in three years and a gauge of business investment jumped.

Consumer spending rose 0.6 percent when adjusted for inflation, while new factory orders for capital goods outside the defense and aerospace sectors - a proxy for business spending plans - jumped 2.7 percent, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

Economists had pinned earlier weakness in investment plans on worries lawmakers and the White House might fail to strike a deal to avoid the brunt of tax hikes and government spending cuts scheduled to begin in January.

They also worried consumers would hold back as the end-of-the-year deadline approached with both parties far apart on how to avoid the potential hit to the economy. But Friday's data suggested both consumers and businesses had mostly shrugged off the cliff, at least in November.

"It appears that the looming fiscal cliff hasn't been nearly as disruptive as we had feared," said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

Still, another report provided ample reason for caution as U.S. consumer sentiment slumped in December, with households apparently rattled by on-going negotiations to lessen the fiscal tightening that could easily trigger a recession next year.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment in December tumbled more than expected to 72.9 from 82.7 a month before.

U.S. stocks fell sharply after a Republican proposal for averting the fiscal cliff was abandoned late on Thursday, eroding optimism that a deal could be reached quickly. At the same time, U.S. government debt prices rallied and the dollar gained ground as investors sought a safe haven.

Economists still expect economic growth to cool in the fourth quarter as companies slow the pace at which they have been re-stocking their shelves, but the data on Friday suggested consumers are offsetting some of that drag.

Consumer spending is on track to grow at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, faster than during the prior three months, said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers raised its forecast for fourth-quarter economic growth by four tenths of a point to a 1.4 percent annual rate. In the third quarter, the economy expanded at a 3.1 percent rate.

"The economy is holding in here at the end of the year despite the concerns about the fiscal cliff," said Gary Thayer, an economic strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.

WORRIES AHEAD

Those concerns are not going away.

In November, many analysts on Wall Street said they expected Washington would largely avert the fiscal cliff, and optimism had grown over the last week that a deal was within reach. Since Wednesday, however, negotiations have fallen into disarray.

If Congress and the White House do not reach a deal in time, taxes will go up for all Americans beginning in January and the government will cut spending on a host of programs. Running off the fiscal cliff would slash the nation's trillion-dollar budget deficit nearly in half in just one year.

The impact would only come gradually, but economists expect it would be enough to knock the country into recession in the first half of the year.

So far, uncertainty over the talks appears to have had only a limited impact on the economy.

New orders for durable goods, items meant to last three years or more, rose a greater-than-expected 0.7 percent in November due to gains in machinery, fabricated metal products, and computer and electronic products. Those increases were offset by a decline in volatile aircraft orders.

The report also showed a rise in shipments, brightening the prospects for fourth-quarter economic growth.

Shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, used to calculate equipment and software spending in the government's measures of gross domestic product, gained 1.8 percent, after rising by a softer 0.6 percent in October.

(Additional reporting by Ellen Freilich and Leah Schnurr in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Tim Ahmann)

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Gauge of business investment posts solid gain

Washers and dryers are seen on display at a store in New York July 28, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Shannon Stapleton

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 21, 2012 8:38am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A gauge of planned U.S. business spending rose much more than expected in November, a hint that worries over tighter fiscal policy may not be holding back the factory sector as much as feared.

The Commerce Department said on Friday that non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for investment plans, jumped 2.7 percent last month, the second straight month of solid gains.

Economists had expected so-called core capital goods orders to rise just 0.3 percent. The reading for October was upwardly revised to a 3.2 percent gain from a previously reported 2.9 percent increase.

Shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, used to calculate equipment and software spending in the gross domestic product report, gained 1.8 percent.

The Commerce Department gave no indication that Superstorm Sandy, which lashed the East Coast in late October, had any impact on the data.

Many economists believe businesses are cutting back on capital spending, wary of automatic government spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to kick in early next year unless the U.S. Congress and the Obama administration can agree on a plan to avert this so-called "fiscal cliff."

Going over the cliff could drain about $600 billion from an already fragile economy.

Overall durable goods orders rose 0.7 percent in November, with increases posted for machinery, fabricated metal products, and computer and electronic products offsetting a drag from aircraft.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast orders for durable goods, items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years, rising 0.2 percent last month.

Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.6 percent in November. Transport orders were down 1.1 percent. Previously, U.S. manufacturer Boeing reported new orders for its aircraft fell in November to 124 from 152 in the prior month.

New orders for autos jumped 3.5 percent. U.S. auto sales in November raced to a five-year high for that month on a rebound from storm-ravaged October and the need to replace aging vehicles.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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U.S. state, local spending expands for first time in three years

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:41pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - State and local government spending grew at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, after 11 straight quarters of contraction, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday.

The last time state and local spending expanded was in the third quarter of 2009, at a much more robust rate of 2.2 percent. Then, for nearly three years, spending contracted sharply, with the biggest drop in the first quarter of 2010 at 5.5 percent.

States are pinching pennies, keeping spending growth slow as the economy recovers from the 2007-09 recession and the federal government sends them fewer funds.

"The recent improvement in the national economy has not translated to strong growth in total state expenditures," said the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) in a report also released on Thursday.

Total state spending likely grew only 0.1 percent in fiscal 2012, the lowest level since the group began tracking state spending in 1987, NASBO said. Most states' fiscal years end in June, which means that many have already started fiscal 2013.

The 2007-09 recession caused states' revenues to plunge and, because all states except Vermont must end their fiscal years with balanced budgets, many slashed spending, calling special legislative sessions to make emergency mid-year cuts.

The federal government stepped in to help with the 2009 economic stimulus plan known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which included the largest transfer of federal funds to states in U.S. history.

NASBO said state expenditures grew 3.8 percent in fiscal 2010 and 2.8 percent in fiscal 2011, mostly due to the assistance. By fiscal 2010 federal money made up nearly 35 percent of state spending, compared with 26.3 percent in fiscal 2008.

Now that the burst of stimulus money is over, states must once again shoulder the costs of public programs, even though their revenues are only beginning to return to pre-recession levels. Federal funds likely only represented 31.2 percent of state spending in fiscal 2012 and will continue to shrink, NASBO said.

"State revenues have not increased as fast as ARRA funds have declined, leading to a unique situation in which total state expenditure growth has slowed during the same time that the national economy has been improving," it reported.

Meanwhile, spending demands continue to grow, particularly for the Medicaid healthcare program for the poor that states operate with partial reimbursement from the federal government.

Over the last three years, the portion of state spending going to Medicaid has risen to 23.9 percent from 22.2 percent. Many states worry that Medicaid will eat up their budgets, and leave fewer dollars for other areas.

Spending on education dipped to 19.8 percent in fiscal 2012, the first time on record that the portion has been less than 20 percent, NASBO said.

(Reporting by Lisa Lambert; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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World's investors stirred, not shaken by U.S. fiscal crisis

The U.S. Capitol Building stands in Washington December 17, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Joshua Roberts

By Mike Peacock

LONDON | Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:28am EST

LONDON (Reuters) - Global investors are betting Washington will overcome its budget deadlock despite an apparently serious setback.

If they are wrong, there could be a sharp market reaction and the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds would be among the main beneficiaries, making for a very different dynamic to the euro zone crisis, where bond market pressure was instrumental in forcing policymakers to act.

Republican lawmakers rejected a proposal on Thursday by their leader, House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, designed to extract concessions from President Barack Obama.

It threw into disarray attempts to head off $600 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy into recession.

The dollar climbed versus the euro, stocks slid from Tokyo to London and safe haven government bonds rose but in only muted fashion, indicating a continued belief that a deal will be done.

Is this sensible or complacent?

Jeffrey Rosenberg, chief investment strategist for fixed income at BlackRock, said the only approach was to "hope for the best, but plan for the worst".

"Given the much greater downside from a fiscal cliff failure than upside from success, we continue to maintain our tactical defensive positioning," Rosenberg said.

If differences between Republicans and Democrats cannot be bridged, the dollar -- counter intuitively to the layman's eye -- would attract safe haven flows as the world's reserve currency. The yen could do even better despite the new Japanese government's intent on more forceful monetary and fiscal easing.

"The dollar goes up when people get more nervous because the reflex in the market is to assume it's a safe haven, there's very little consideration given to the nature of the crisis," said Daragh Maher, FX strategist at HSBC.

"If the U.S. is heading towards recession it's not good for anyone, therefore if I have to hold something I may as well hold the dollar. That's how the sequence of logic goes."

Obama and Boehner aim to reach a deal before the New Year, when taxes will automatically rise for nearly all Americans and the government will have to scale back spending on domestic and military programs. The politicians are now in recess until at least December 27.

"The time left to seal a deal is limited," said Kit Juckes at Societe Generale in London.

There is, however, good reason not to panic since the term "fiscal cliff" is somewhat misleading. America will not crash off it on January 1. The tightening process will be more gradual.

The head of G10 FX Strategy at one bank in London said it was much more of a slope than a cliff. "The market's working assumption has been all along that it's going to go right down to the wire, and then they're going to cut a deal."

Hong Hao, Bank of Communications International Securities' chief equity strategist in Hong Kong, said: "If I were a fund manager, I would be looking to lock in gains and going off for the holidays. The U.S. will eventually come to a deal, maybe just not by their self-imposed deadline."

NO BOND PRESSURE

As with the euro debt crisis, the markets could offer a natural check and balance -- if their reaction turns savage, it might pressure a divided Washington to come together.

The difference is that, as with the dollar, U.S. government bonds are viewed as a harbor from risk, so the bond market pressure brought to bear on the euro zone is unlikely to be replicated in this case.

"Although trading at all-time lows, treasury yields could benefit both from renewed equity volatility and the short-term economics after any resolution," said Edward Smith, global strategist at Collins Stewart Wealth Management.

Unlike the euro zone periphery, shunning U.S. assets is not really an option, not least because global markets tend to correlate closely with Wall Street anyway.

For Juckes, the latest standoff in Washington could go two ways: The weakening of Boehner's position could strengthen Obama's hand, particularly since he has already given ground. Alternatively, the Republicans may now be so divided that they cannot back any sort of deal that raises taxes on the wealthier.

The optimists would buy equities and the euro on any dip, he said. "(They) will look at the improving tone to U.S. data and at the vast amount of money that needs investing."

If the glass-half-full view prevails and the world economy starts looking up, Reuters asset allocation polls show major investors are looking to areas that underperformed this year -- notably the Chinese stock market, one of the few major bourses in the red for 2012.

After two years in which the stock markets of the emerging giants underperformed, Russia and Brazil also have backers.

For now, most investors seem to be hoping for the best rather than altering their strategies.

"If it turns out that there's a poor agreement delaying a number of issues until the spring but skating away from the immediate catastrophe of January, or no agreement at all, that clearly is not priced into market expectations," said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments, which has 163.4 billion pounds of assets under management.

"I think (a lack of agreement) would encourage people even more to go into the dividend yield type stocks ... And clearly the stocks that are more associated with global trade would be the ones that investors would be pulling back from," he said.

(Reporting by Sinead Cruise, Sujata Rao, Nia Williams, Tricia Wright, Richard Hubbard and Clement Tan. Editing by Jeremy Gaunt.)

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Consumer sentiment slumps in December as fiscal woes weigh

A shopper walks down an aisle in a newly opened Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago in this September 21, 2011 file photo.

Credit: Reuters/Jim Young/Files

NEW YORK | Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:21am EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment slumped in December as Americans were rattled by on-going negotiations to avert the tax hikes and spending cuts set to come into effect in the new year, data showed on Friday.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment tumbled to 72.9 from 82.7 in November, worse than forecasts for 74.7.

It was the lowest level since July and also came in under December's preliminary figure of 74.5.

Talks to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff were thrown into disarray on Thursday evening when Republican lawmakers failed to back an effort by House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner that was designed to extract concessions from President Barack Obama.

Economists say the economy could fall back into recession next year if the changes are allowed to go into full effect.

Record numbers of consumers spontaneously mentioned their concerns that no resolution would be reached before year-end, the survey said.

"Even if something is passed in the next week, unless it includes an extension of the payroll tax holiday, as well as no increase in income taxes except for the wealthy, consumers are likely to be disappointed," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

Of those surveyed, 27 percent said they were concerned about higher taxes, topping the prior high of 26 percent seen in August 2011 in the wake of the drawn-out debt ceiling debate.

U.S. stocks as measured by the SP500 index were down about 1.0 percent in morning trading as hopes faded that a fiscal deal would be reached soon.

Consumers were also less upbeat about the economic outlook, with 35 percent expecting unemployment to rise during 2013, up from 19 percent in October. Only one-third expected an uninterrupted economic expansion over the next five years.

The barometer of current economic conditions slipped to 87.0 from November's 90.7, while the gauge of consumer expectations fell to 63.8 from 77.6.

The survey's one-year inflation expectation edged up to 3.2 percent from 3.1 percent, while the survey's five-to-10-year inflation outlook rose to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr)

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Boehner abandons fiscal cliff plan as Republicans balk

1 of 4. House Speaker John Boehner makes a brief statement to the media at the Capitol in Washington December 19, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Gary Cameron

By Rachelle Younglai and Thomas Ferraro

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:28pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican lawmakers delivered a stinging rebuke to their leader, House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, on Thursday when they failed to back an effort designed to extract concessions from President Barack Obama in year-end "fiscal cliff" talks.

The dramatic twist threw into disarray attempts to head off $600 billion worth of indiscriminate tax hikes and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy into recession next year.

It also cast doubt over Boehner's future as speaker after failing to control unruly conservatives in his caucus.

With only 11 days left for bickering politicians to prevent automatic tax hikes and spending cuts, U.S. stock futures fell sharply on the news of the rebuke to Boehner.

The Ohio congressman had hoped to demonstrate Republican unity by passing a bill through the House, known as "Plan B," that would limit income-tax increases to the wealthiest sliver of the population - those earning $1 million and more, a far smaller slice of taxpayers than Obama wants to pay higher taxes.

But Boehner canceled the vote after failing to round up enough support from his party because many conservative Republicans are opposed to tax hikes on even the richest wage-earning Americans.

"The House did not take up the tax measure today because it did not have sufficient support from our members to pass," Boehner said in a statement after huddling with other Republican leaders.

The White House pledged to work with Congress to reach a deal as quickly as possible.

"We are hopeful that we will be able to find a bipartisan solution quickly that protects the middle class and our economy," White House spokesman Jay Carney said in a statement.

The bill, had it passed, would have put Republicans on record as supporting a tax increase on those who earn more than $1 million per year, breaking with decades of orthodoxy. It won the blessing of influential anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, but other conservative groups fiercely opposed it and many rank-and-file members said they would not support it.

Obama wants to raise taxes on families earning more than $400,000, a much lower threshold.

RECESSION THREAT

Obama and Boehner aim to reach a deal before the New Year, when taxes will automatically rise for nearly all Americans and the government will have to scale back spending on domestic and military programs. Economists say the combined $600 billion hit to the economy could push the U.S. economy into recession.

Boehner said Obama now must first pass a bill through the Democratic-controlled Senate before he holds another vote in the House.

Democrats said Boehner should first hammer out a deal with Obama. "The only way to avoid the cliff altogether is for Speaker Boehner to return to negotiations," said Adam Jentleson, a spokesman for Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid.

With Republicans in chaos, Boehner will almost certainly need support from House Democrats to pass a deal before the end of the year. But he will have to keep an eye on his right flank before he stands for re-election as the top House lawmaker on January 3.

Alternatively, Boehner could wait until the new year to hold a vote. At that point, tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003 will have expired for all Americans, and it presumably would be easier to pass a bill that would restore tax cuts for most.

Opinion polls show that more Americans would blame Republicans rather than Obama if they don't reach a deal before then.

So far, negotiations appear to be following the dysfunctional pattern set by the 2011 battle over the debt ceiling: fitful progress alternating with public posturing. Boehner also struggled during that showdown to corral the most conservative members of his own party.

Washington narrowly avoided defaulting on the U.S. government's debt in August 2011, but the down-to-the-wire nature of the effort prompted a first-ever debt rating downgrade and spooked investors and consumers.

This time around, concern over the fiscal cliff has weighed on markets but analysts say that investors appear to be assuming that the two sides will avert disaster.

"The markets are likely to interpret this as signaling even tougher negotiations in coming days," Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of bond giant PIMCO, told Reuters.

S&P 500 stock futures fell 1.6 percent while Dow Jones stock futures and Nasdaq futures both lost 1.5 percent. At one point S&P 500 e-mini futures were down as much as 3.6 percent.

Lawmakers had hoped to wrap up work before the year-end Christmas break, but leaders in both the House and the Senate have indicated that they may call members back to work next week.

"The brinkmanship will continue," said a senior Republican aide. "This isn't the end of the story. More drama to come."

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro, Mark Felsenthal, Richard Cowan, Jennifer Ablan, Dominic Lau and Kim Dixon; Writing by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Philip Barbara)

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Analysis: Boehner has few options in fiscal cliff mess

U.S. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) speaks to the media on a ''fiscal cliff'' on Capitol Hill in Washington, December 20, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Yuri Gripas

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON | Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:34am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Now that House Speaker John Boehner's "Plan B" for addressing the "fiscal cliff" has crashed and burned, the top U.S. Republican appears to have two remaining options - wash his hands of the entire matter or negotiate a compromise with Democrats that could abandon scores of his fellow Republicans.

The Republican rank and file and Democrats may face an equally stark choice: work together for a change, or plunge together off the cliff.

Boehner tried to ram a "fallback" plan through the House on Thursday - a relatively tiny tax increase on millionaires and billionaires - and failed. His rambunctious Republicans, who see opposition to all tax hikes as a matter of bedrock principle and of political survival, refused to go along.

President Barack Obama and his Democrats who control the Senate take the opposite view - tax hikes on the wealthy are a condition for their support of a fiscal cliff bill. If there is to be a resolution it will largely depend on an improbable scenario - Democrats in the House teaming up with less militant Republicans to back away from the fiscal cliff.

Compromise has been out of style in recent years, and many think it could require some prodding from the markets.

"At this point, I only see one route to avoiding the cliff, a replay of the TARP debacle in 2008," said George Washington University's Sarah Binder, an expert on Congress. In September 2008, the House defeated the bank bailout bill and the market collapsed, prompting a terrified lawmakers to reconsider and pass it.

"In this case, a harsh market and public reaction would be needed to force the hand of the speaker to negotiate a deal that can pass with Democratic votes," she said.

"If the GOP takes a beating in the headlines and the market tanks, I suspect a good number of rank-and-file GOP will demand that the speaker go back to the table. But absent whiplash from the markets and voters, I suspect it's over the cliff we go."

For the time being - or at least the 11 days until the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts are triggered - the House is in disarray and no deal to avert the fiscal cliff is in sight.

While the House in recess for a Christmas break that is likely to last at least until December 27, Boehner must decide whether to move any further in Obama's direction and agree to tax increases much higher than his own proposal that so angered his fellow Republicans on Thursday.

The Ohio Republican also might have to settle for fewer long-term spending cuts than he had hoped for.

WALK ON BY

Boehner's only other apparent option - one that he hinted at late on Thursday following the collapse of his bill - would be to walk away and leave the problem on Democrats' doorstep.

"Now it is up to the president to work with Senator Reid on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff," Boehner said in a statement referring to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

But in a closed-door session before that statement, Republican lawmakers said Boehner told them that he would at least try to work out something with Obama.

Either way, Boehner faces the possibility of having to battle not only Democrats for the next two years, but also his own membership on major bills.

"We have people (Republican lawmakers) who felt like they had to stand on the principle ... they couldn't vote for anything (that raised any taxes). I don't quite understand it," lamented Representative Buck McKeon, the powerful chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who oversaw passage of a $633 billion defense spending bill for 2013.

"If you don't have the votes, you can't move forward," McKeon said of the Plan B fiscal cliff bill.

Representative Steven LaTourette, a moderate Republican who is retiring at year's end, told reporters that Thursday's legislative defeat - and public relations failure - will not stop Boehner from being re-elected House Speaker on January 3. "Name one member who opposes him," LaTourette challenged reporters.

Firing Boehner, LaTourette said, would be "like saying the superintendent of the insane asylum should be discharged because he couldn't control the crazy people."

Nonetheless, two years into his stint as Speaker, Boehner still has not found the right formula for corralling his Republican majority, especially the Tea Party conservatives whose victories in 2010 helped Republicans wrest control of the House. However, he has taken steps in recent weeks to punish a handful of uncooperative Republicans.

Since unveiling his plan on Tuesday, several conservative groups, including the Heritage Foundation, waged a spirited effort to kill the measure.

Those groups, LaTourette said, had been "making their phone calls, and they're bombing people" with pressure to vote against the bill. That, he added, "makes people nervous" about primary election challengers being recruited in 2014 by outside groups to defeat Republican lawmakers who vote for any tax increase.

"I doubt his speakership is in trouble," said American Enterprise Institute scholar Norm Ornstein, "The big question is whether, and when, he is willing to bring up a bill that will require more Democrats than Republicans to pass."

(Reporting By Richard Cowan. Editing by Fred Barbash)

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U.S. state, local spending expands for first time in 3 years

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 20, 2012 4:28pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - State and local government spending grew at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the third quarter, after 11 straight quarters of contraction, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday.

The last time state and local spending expanded was in the third quarter of 2009, at a much more robust rate of 2.2 percent. Then, for nearly three years, spending contracted sharply, with the biggest drop in the first quarter of 2010 at 5.5 percent.

States are pinching pennies, keeping spending growth slow as the economy recovers from the 2007-09 recession and the federal government sends them fewer funds.

"The recent improvement in the national economy has not translated to strong growth in total state expenditures," said the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) in a report also released on Thursday.

Total state spending likely grew only 0.1 percent in fiscal 2012, the lowest level since the group began tracking state spending in 1987, NASBO said. Most states' fiscal years end in June, which means that many have already started fiscal 2013.

The 2007-09 recession caused states' revenues to plunge and, because all states except Vermont must end their fiscal years with balanced budgets, many slashed spending, calling special legislative sessions to make emergency mid-year cuts.

The federal government stepped in to help with the 2009 economic stimulus plan known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which included the largest transfer of federal funds to states in U.S. history.

NASBO said state expenditures grew 3.8 percent in fiscal 2010 and 2.8 percent in fiscal 2011, mostly due to the assistance. By fiscal 2010 federal money made up nearly 35 percent of state spending, compared with 26.3 percent in fiscal 2008.

Now that the burst of stimulus money is over, states must once again shoulder the costs of public programs, even though their revenues are only beginning to return to pre-recession levels. Federal funds likely only represented 31.2 percent of state spending in fiscal 2012 and will continue to shrink, NASBO said.

"State revenues have not increased as fast as ARRA funds have declined, leading to a unique situation in which total state expenditure growth has slowed during the same time that the national economy has been improving," it reported.

Meanwhile, spending demands continue to grow, particularly for the Medicaid healthcare program for the poor that states operate with partial reimbursement from the federal government.

Over the last three years, the portion of state spending going to Medicaid has risen to 23.9 percent from 22.2 percent. Many states worry that Medicaid will eat up their budgets, and leave fewer dollars for other areas.

Spending on education dipped to 19.8 percent in fiscal 2012, the first time on record that the portion has been less than 20 percent, NASBO said.

(Reporting by Lisa Lambert; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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Exports, government spending buoy growth

1 of 2. A general view of the Port of Los Angeles, California November 29, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Lori Shepler

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:24am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter as exports and government spending provided a lift, but that boost is likely to be lost amid slowing global demand and a move towards tighter fiscal policy in Washington.

Other data on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region picked up this month, while home resales in November were the best in three years.

However, a rise in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week suggested job growth remained modest.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said, a step-up from the 2.7 percent pace it reported last month.

It was the fastest growth since late 2011 and beat economists expectations for a 2.8 percent pace. In addition to upward revisions to exports and government spending, consumer spending was also a bit stronger than earlier thought.

"We still expect growth to decelerate in the fourth quarter. Beyond that, all will depend on the resolution of the fiscal cliff negotiations," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

The "fiscal cliff" refers to automatic government spending cuts and higher taxes that could suck about $600 billion from the economy early next year unless the U.S. Congress and the Obama administration can agree on a less drastic plan to cut the budget deficits

In second report, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index rose to 8.1 from minus 10.7 in November, boosted by a rebound in new orders and shipments. That is a hopeful sign for the manufacturing sector, which has slowed in recent months.

Separately, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales surged 5.9 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million units.

It was the highest since November 2009 and confirmed the housing market recovery was strengthening.

"We are seeing ongoing momentum in the housing market. The sky is not falling on manufacturing. There were concerns earlier this summer. The contribution from housing-related manufacturing is making a difference," said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica in Dallas.

Still, the housing market recovery lacks the depth to replace manufacturing as the economy's growth engine.

MODEST JOB GROWTH

In a fourth report, the Labor Department said initial claims for jobless benefits increased 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 361,000, in the low end of the range they held before Superstorm Sandy struck in late October.

The data covered the survey period for the government's report on December nonfarm payrolls and suggested modest job gains.

"The pace of hiring is still disappointing," said Tanweer Akram, a senior economist at ING Investment Management in Atlanta, adding that the pace of GDP growth in the current quarter "remains quite soft."

Akram said businesses appeared to be holding back out of concern the fiscal cliff could hit the economy hard.

Even if lawmakers and the White House agree on a plan to avoid the brunt of the blow, a tighter fiscal policy and a cooling global economy will likely still weigh on U.S. growth in coming quarters.

A Reuters poll of economists earlier this month showed a median forecast for GDP growth in the current quarter of just a 1.2 percent annual pace. Economists expect GDP to expand just 1.9 percent next year.

Job gains so far this year have averaged 151,000 per month, a pattern that is likely to hold through December.

Growth in the third quarter was revised higher to show a much faster pace of export growth and the first decline in imports in more than three years.

Exports grew at a 1.9 percent rate, rather than 1.1 percent, helping to narrow the trade deficit. Trade contributed 0.38 percentage point to GDP growth. The drop in imports is a sign of weak domestic demand.

Government spending was revised to a 3.9 percent growth rate from 3.5 percent, boosted by a rebound in state and local government outlays. It added three quarters of a percentage point to GDP growth in the third quarter.

While growth in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, was raised by 0.2 percentage point to a 1.6 percent rate, that was mostly due to increased spending on healthcare.

Business inventories were trimmed to $60.3 billion from $61.3 billion. Restocking by businesses contributed 0.73 percentage point to GDP growth.

Given the still sluggish spending pace, some of the inventory accumulation might have been unplanned, suggesting businesses will need to liquidate stocks this quarter because of weak demand.

Excluding inventories, GDP rose at a revised 2.4 percent rate. Final sales of goods and services produced in the United States had been previously estimated to have increased at a 1.9 percent pace.

(Additional reporting by Jason Lange in Washington and Ellen Freilich in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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Exports, government spending buoy third-quarter growth

A customer looks over produce at the Phoenix Public Market in Phoenix, Arizona August 23, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Joshua Lott

WASHINGTON | Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:51am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter as exports and government spending provided a lift, but that boost is likely to be lost amid slowing global demand and a move towards tighter fiscal policy.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate on Thursday, up from the 2.7 percent pace reported last month.

It was the fastest growth since late 2011 and also reflected a slightly better pace of consumer spending than previously estimated.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be raised to a 2.8 percent pace. Exports grew at a 1.9 percent rate, rather than 1.1 percent.

With imports falling for the first time since the second quarter of 2009, that narrowed the trade deficit. Trade contributed 0.38 percentage point to GDP growth. The drop in imports is a sign of weak domestic demand.

Government spending was revised to a 3.9 percent growth rate from 3.5 percent, boosted by a rebound in state and local government outlays. It added three quarters of a percentage point to GDP growth in the third quarter.

The boost from exports is likely to be short-lived against the backdrop of a cooling global economy. Government will likely be a drag in the coming quarters amid belt tightening to trim the budget deficits.

About $600 billion in automatic government spending cuts and higher taxes could be pulled out of the economy in early 2013, and tip it back into recession unless an agreement is reached on less punitive plan.

While growth in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, was raised by 0.2 percentage point to a 1.6 percent rate, that mostly reflected higher health care costs.

Business inventories were trimmed to $60.3 billion from $61.3 billion. Restocking by businesses contributed 0.73 percentage point to GDP growth.

Given the sluggish spending pace, some of the inventory accumulation might have been unplanned, suggesting businesses will need to liquidate stocks this quarter because of weak demand.

Excluding inventories, GDP rose at a revised 2.4 percent rate. Final sales of goods and services produced in the United States had been previously estimated to have increased at a 1.9 percent pace.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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